Oh my gadz! First turn 84% of the time*? OVERPOWERED! NERF! IMBA! LEAFBLOWER! METAGAME!
Newsflash: you're an idiot.
Those 2 characters are well into the 300's total points cost. With raiders and dark lances more expensive than ever, that really hurts. Besides, not playing like a retard is all it takes to beat this sort of list anyways. Even moreso than IG. All the same tactics that destroy the "famed" leafblower style lists hurt DE even more. At least IG are AV12+, not open-topped, and can have cheap bubblewrap units.
Q: What do DE players do when they play this list and their opponents full reserve or use deepstriking units?
A: Start packing up.**
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* - With Sathonyx and Vect.
Roll-off Results
36 possible outcomes
21 wins
10 losses
5 draws
5*(21/36) = 2.91666 more wins from first 5 draws
1*(21/36) = .58333 more wins from 1 remaining draw
= 3.5 more wins from all draws
= 24.5 total wins out of 36 possible die outcomes
24.5/36 = .680556 chance to win initial roll-off
[1-(24.5/36)] X (3/6) = .159722 additional first turns from siezed initiative
.680556 + .159722 = .840278 => 84% total chance to go first
** - That being said, it will completely decimate everyone anyways. If the internet has shown us anything about 40k gamers, it's that they don't like thinking tactically and so this list will rock them all***. It will be the 4-move checkmate of 40k. Prepare for the FAQ to nerf this combination for no reason other than because general(ly wrong) consensus makes it out to be unfair.
*** - Now that I think of it, maybe if I play a list like this, it will create a new metagame in my area where everyone tries to play more tactically in order to win. Perhaps that is what Darkwynn was trying to do all along...
Getting on Even Footing
2 years ago
I do not understand Mathhammer very well. However, I don't mind going 2nd. Sometimes it means shooting at someone's ass.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I believe the DE especially will want to go second more often than not. With their fast vehicles, I'm thinking going second, weathering the fire behind terrain or out of LoS, and then zooming into position to get good shots and/or first turn charges is going to be the way to go.
ReplyDeleteNot only that, but going second means they get to use their speed to better effect late game to contest or capture objectives.
Their stuff is too expensive and fragile for alpha strike. If you get seized, the game is over.
I just want to say that this is a fantastic blog, nice to see someone crunching the numbers. I never understood the stigma associated with doing simple basic math in this hobby, an attitude made obvious with the term "mathhaammer" which is often uttered with a strange mix of fear and disgust. I've always enjoyed running the numbers to decide on the best loadouts and army selections, like you said in a previous post, it really makes clear whats good and what isn't. Great stuff, I'll be coming back here often.
ReplyDeleteThanks! That really means a lot.
ReplyDeleteI can honestly say that doing the math is my favorite part of the hobby.